Is SpaceX Really Worth $1.75 Trillion at IPO?

SpaceX is targeting a $1.75 trillion IPO valuation — and no, that is not a typo. To put that into perspective, it would instantly make SpaceX the ninth largest company in the S&P 500, worth more than Berkshire Hathaway, and the biggest IPO in world history. It would also be worth more than Boeing, AT&T, Disney, McDonald's, American Express, and Home Depot combined. So the question everyone is asking right now is pretty simple: is it actually worth it?

The short answer, based on today's financials, is no. But the longer answer is far more interesting — and potentially concerning for everyday investors who have no intention of buying a single share of SpaceX stock.

When Is SpaceX Going Public?

SpaceX has filed an S1 document with regulators, which is the comprehensive financial disclosure a company must release before going public. This filing confirms the company is actively pursuing an IPO and has set its sights on listing on the NASDAQ. While an exact IPO date has not been officially confirmed at the time of writing, the filing and surrounding reports suggest the listing could happen in the near term. SpaceX is reportedly looking to raise around $75 billion through the process to fund its expansion plans, including Starship development, Mars ambitions, and its rapidly growing AI infrastructure.

What Does SpaceX's S1 Filing Actually Reveal?

Because SpaceX wants to IPO, it is required to release an S1 filing — a detailed document that lays out the company's financial position for potential investors. This is actually the first time the public has gotten a comprehensive look under the hood of one of the most secretive and hyped private companies on the planet. And what it reveals is a business that is genuinely fascinating, but also genuinely complicated.

Contrary to what many people assume, SpaceX is not just a rocket company. The S1 filing makes clear there are actually three distinct business segments operating under the SpaceX umbrella, and understanding each one is essential to evaluating whether that $1.75 trillion number holds up.

The Rocket Business

This is the original SpaceX operation — launching things into space for NASA, commercial customers, and increasingly for its own internal needs. In 2025, this segment generated $4.1 billion in revenue. It also accounted for roughly 80% of all mass launched into orbit globally last year, which is a staggering market share. The catch? It lost $657 million on that revenue, largely due to enormous R&D spending on the next-generation Starship rocket program.

Starlink

Starlink is SpaceX's satellite internet service, and it is the clear financial backbone of the company. With around 9,600 satellites in low Earth orbit and 10.3 million customers, Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025 — by far the largest segment. More importantly, it was the only segment turning a meaningful profit.

AI (xAI Segment)

Earlier this year, SpaceX merged in xAI at a reported $250 billion valuation, bringing together Grok, X, and the massive computing infrastructure needed to train and run large AI models. In 2025, this segment generated $3.2 billion in revenue but lost a staggering $6.4 billion. It is early days, but the AI segment is currently a massive cash furnace.

How Much Money Does SpaceX Actually Make?

In total, SpaceX posted $18.67 billion in revenue in 2025. That is genuinely impressive. But when you dig into the profitability picture, things get much more complicated. The rocket business lost money. The AI segment lost a lot of money. And Starlink carried the entire operation, generating $4.4 billion in operating income at an operating margin of nearly 39%.

The company generated $6.8 billion in operating cash flow for 2025. However, virtually all of that — and then some — was consumed by capital expenditures. And in the first quarter of 2026, SpaceX posted $4.7 billion in revenue alongside a $1.9 billion operating loss. So right now, the company is not consistently profitable at the bottom line.

Why Starlink Is the Engine Powering SpaceX's Finances

It is hard to overstate how important Starlink is to this entire investment thesis. Without it, SpaceX's financials would look genuinely alarming. With it, there is a real, profitable, high-margin business at the core of the company generating billions in cash. A 39% operating margin is excellent — comparable to some of the best software businesses in the world.

The bull case for SpaceX essentially rests on Starlink continuing to scale aggressively, growing its customer base from 10.3 million toward hundreds of millions globally, and potentially expanding into maritime, aviation, and enterprise markets. If Starlink becomes a truly dominant global internet provider, the economics of this business change dramatically. That is the dream being priced into a $1.75 trillion valuation.

Does the Math Support a $1.75 Trillion Valuation?

Let's run a rough valuation to see how far off reality this number actually is. Using a discounted cash flow model — and being extremely generous — assume SpaceX keeps its full $6.8 billion in operating cash flow as free cash flow (ignoring all capital expenditures, which in reality would never happen). Now assume the business grows at a very aggressive 20% per year for 10 years. And assume you only want a 10% annual return — roughly what you'd get from an index fund. Selling the business at 20x free cash flow at the end of the period, the discounted cash flow model spits out a rough intrinsic value of around $438 billion.

That is not $1.75 trillion. And remember, we were being exceptionally generous. The real number, accounting for actual free cash flow after capital expenditure, would be considerably lower. So on a fundamental basis, the IPO valuation looks extremely stretched.

Will SpaceX Get Forced Into Your Index Funds?

Here is where things get really interesting — and a little unsettling. Even if you have zero intention of buying SpaceX stock, you may end up owning it anyway. The NASDAQ is currently changing its rules to allow the fast-tracking of large companies directly into the NASDAQ 100 index — after just 15 trading days of trading, down from the previous 3-month waiting period.

SpaceX has reportedly told NASDAQ that early inclusion in the NASDAQ 100 is a necessary condition for listing on that exchange. And why does that matter? Because the NASDAQ 100 supports over 200 tracking products with more than $600 billion in assets globally. Being included means hundreds of ETFs and passive investment products are essentially forced to buy SpaceX shares automatically, regardless of valuation. This passive buying could help SpaceX sustain its lofty price tag even if the fundamentals don't justify it.

NASDAQ is deliberately loosening these rules to attract major private companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI to list on their exchange. It is a smart move for the exchange. Whether it is a smart move for ordinary investors who own index funds is a very different question.

What Is Elon Musk's Insane SpaceX Pay Package?

The S1 filing also details Elon Musk's compensation arrangement, and it is extraordinary. Musk has been granted 1 billion performance-based restricted B-shares, vesting in 15 tranches of 66.7 million shares each. To unlock each tranche, two conditions must be met simultaneously: SpaceX must hit escalating market cap targets ranging from $500 billion up to $7.5 trillion, and the company must establish a permanent human colony on Mars with at least 1 million inhabitants.

Yes, really. However, there is a crucial detail buried in the filing: the restricted shares have already been issued to Musk and can already be voted. This means Musk's influence over the company is effectively locked in regardless of whether the performance targets are ever hit. The filing also states that Musk is expected to control approximately 85.1% of combined voting power ahead of the IPO. If you buy into this company, you are essentially along for Elon's ride — with very little say in the direction.

Should You Buy SpaceX IPO Stock?

That depends entirely on what you are buying it for. If you are a genuine long-term believer in Starlink's global dominance, Starship revolutionizing space economics, and the AI segment eventually turning profitable, there is a narrative here worth considering. SpaceX is doing genuinely remarkable things.

But from a pure valuation standpoint, paying $1.75 trillion for a company that is currently burning cash, heavily dependent on one profitable segment, and loaded with speculative future bets is extremely aggressive. The company is deliberately timing this IPO during what is described as the second most euphoric market environment since 1999, and it is specifically targeting retail investors — setting aside 30% of the IPO for them, compared to the typical 5-10%. SpaceX's own CFO reportedly told a room of bankers: "retail is going to be a critical part of this."

They know exactly what they are doing. Going in with eyes wide open is essential. The business is extraordinary. The price is something else entirely.