SpaceX is joining the NASDAQ 100 index on Tuesday — and the move is anything but routine. Fast-tracked past the standard seasoning rules that typically delay IPO entrants for several months, SpaceX's inclusion is set to trigger mandatory buying from every fund that tracks the index. With a $2 trillion valuation and a record-breaking $86 billion IPO in the books, this is one of the most consequential index additions in recent memory. Here's what's driving the markets this week, from SpaceX's index debut to key Q2 earnings from PepsiCo and Delta Airlines.
When Does SpaceX Join the NASDAQ 100?
SpaceX is officially joining the NASDAQ 100 on Tuesday of this week. Normally, newly public companies must wait through a so-called "seasoning period" before they're eligible for major index inclusion — a rule designed to ensure some level of price stability and market history. But NASDAQ fast-tracked SpaceX's entry given the sheer scale of the company.
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SpaceX's NASDAQ 100 inclusion timeline and what fast-tracking means for index eligibility rules
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At a $2 trillion market cap, SpaceX would immediately rank among the largest companies on the NASDAQ — a lineup that includes Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. Its IPO, which raised $86 billion, shattered records and made it impossible to ignore for index administrators. It's worth noting, however, that rival index provider S&P Dow Jones has taken a different approach: they are not fast-tracking SpaceX and will maintain their existing eligibility requirements before any potential S&P 500 inclusion.
How Will SpaceX's Inclusion Affect QQQ and Index Funds?
Here's where things get mechanically interesting for everyday investors. When a stock joins the NASDAQ 100, every fund that tracks the index is required to buy shares of that company — regardless of their personal view on the stock. That includes one of the most widely held ETFs in the world: the QQQ ETF, a favorite passive investment vehicle for retail investors.
This mandatory buying pressure can create short-term price momentum as billions in fund assets are reallocated. Passive index investing, by definition, removes discretion — if SpaceX is in the index, the fund buys SpaceX. For a stock that has already behaved like one of Elon Musk's rockets — surging after its IPO before settling back down — this influx of institutional demand could be a significant catalyst in either direction.
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PepsiCo's year-to-date stock performance vs. consumer staples peers
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- QQQ ETF and all NASDAQ 100 tracking funds must buy SpaceX shares
- SpaceX would be one of the largest components in the index at $2 trillion
- S&P Dow Jones indices are not making the same exception, maintaining standard rules
When Does the SpaceX IPO Quiet Period End?
Beyond the index inclusion itself, there's another major catalyst arriving in the same week: the end of the IPO quiet period for SpaceX's underwriters. After any IPO, the banks that managed the deal are legally prohibited from publishing research or price targets for a set period — typically 25 days — to prevent conflicts of interest.
Once that quiet period expires, investors can expect analyst initiations from major Wall Street banks including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Citi. These initiations — complete with buy/sell ratings and price targets — often move stocks significantly on their own. Stacking analyst coverage on top of index inclusion makes this a particularly event-dense week for SpaceX watchers.
What Are Analysts Expecting from PepsiCo Q2 Earnings?
While SpaceX dominates the headlines, earnings season is quietly getting underway. PepsiCo reports on Thursday, giving investors one of the first real windows into the state of the U.S. consumer heading into the second half of 2025.
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Delta Airlines stock chart showing its 2025 upward trajectory ahead of Q2 earnings
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The picture isn't pretty. PepsiCo shares are up less than 1% year-to-date, a stark underperformance relative to the broader market. Barclays notes that the stock has trailed other consumer staples names as investors remain skeptical about the durability of the company's North American turnaround.
Options markets are currently pricing in a move of approximately 3% in either direction after the earnings print — a relatively muted expectation that reflects both the uncertainty and the low bar the market has set for the company.
Key themes to watch on the PepsiCo call include:
- Cost inflation: Bloomberg Intelligence flagged that the company's full-year outlook and growth plan will be a significant focus, especially on commodity cost pressures linked to global instability
- Consumer spending: Shoppers remain cautious, with discretionary snack spending under pressure
- Geopolitical impact: Aluminum prices, affected by Middle East tensions, represent a real cost headwind for a company that sells billions of cans annually
Are GLP-1 Drugs Hurting PepsiCo Sales?
One of the longer-term structural questions looming over PepsiCo is the rise of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy. As more consumers adopt these medications, behavioral changes in eating habits are becoming measurable — and companies like PepsiCo, whose portfolio includes Cheetos, Doritos, and Gatorade, are directly in the crosshairs.
GLP-1 users tend to consume fewer calories overall and gravitate toward healthier, whole-food options. That's a direct challenge to PepsiCo's core snack and beverage brands. While the impact isn't yet catastrophic, it represents a secular headwind that investors are increasingly pricing into longer-term earnings models. Thursday's call may offer some clarity on how management is responding — whether through product reformulation, portfolio diversification, or simply acknowledging the challenge.
What Should Investors Expect from Delta Airlines Earnings?
Closing out the week, Delta Airlines reports on Friday — right in the heart of summer travel season, which should theoretically be its strongest period. The stock has been on a steady upward trajectory in 2025, and analysts are watching closely to see if that momentum is justified by the fundamentals.
Options markets are pricing a more significant move for Delta than for PepsiCo: approximately 5.8% in either direction following the print, reflecting greater uncertainty around the airline's cost structure.
The bull case, articulated by TD Cowen, is compelling:
- Strong demand across all products and geographies
- A recent drop in fuel prices removing a key cost headwind
- Strong peak-season pricing during summer travel
- TD Cowen raised their price target to $16 from $92 ahead of the print
Will Lower Fuel Prices Help Delta Beat Margin Expectations?
Not everyone is as optimistic. Bloomberg Intelligence flagged that Delta's EBITDA and margins will likely come in significantly lower than prior periods, as sustained fuel price spikes continue to eat into profitability. Airlines operate on notoriously thin margins, and even a modest increase in jet fuel costs can dramatically impact the bottom line.
The key data point investors will be watching is full-year guidance. Delta's commentary on forward bookings, pricing power into Q3, and their fuel hedging strategy will likely matter more than the Q2 number itself. Analysts are split — some bullish on peak-season pricing dynamics, others cautious about whether the fuel tailwind is durable enough to offset broader cost pressures.
It's shaping up to be a week where the stories are as different as they come: a rocket ship stock making its index debut, a snack giant navigating a changing consumer landscape, and an airline trying to capitalize on America's enduring appetite for travel. Stay tuned.
