If you're asking what happens to SpaceX stock after its IPO lock-up expiration, the short answer is this: the stock faces extreme downward pressure across 11 separate events stretching from mid-2025 all the way into 2027. SpaceX may be destined for greatness — but basic supply and demand economics means the road there could be brutally painful for early buyers. Here's everything you need to know before putting a single dollar into this company.
What Happens to SpaceX Stock After Lock-Up Expires?
The lock-up expiration problem with SpaceX is unlike most IPOs. Normally, a company goes public, early investors are locked up for 180 days, and then the selling pressure gradually resolves. SpaceX has structured its share releases differently — in a series of cascading waves that create repeated, compounding selling pressure over nearly two full years.
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Rocket Lab's 25% drop in 4 days after NASDAQ inclusion — a likely preview of SpaceX's post-inclusion move
Watch at 04:12 →
Only 4.2% of shares were unlocked on IPO launch day. That artificial scarcity drove the price all the way to $220+ per share. But here's the economic reality: when you multiply that available supply by seven — which is exactly what the upcoming unlocks will do — and demand doesn't grow proportionally, the price of those shares has to come down. That's not pessimism, that's Economics 101.
Think of it this way: if one person wants one apple, they'll pay a premium. Give that same person seven apples and no new buyers show up — the price of each apple drops. SpaceX's unlock schedule is essentially running the IPO over and over again, every few weeks.
Full SpaceX Share Unlock Schedule: 2025 Through 2027
Here is the complete schedule of SpaceX share unlock events that investors need to track:
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The full SpaceX lock-up expiration timeline showing 11 separate selling events from 2025 to 2027
Watch at 09:45 →
- Late July / Early August 2025: The second trading day after the earnings call, 20% to 30% of shares unlock. If the stock trades above 30% of the IPO price for five out of the 10 days leading into earnings, the full 30% unlocks. That's nearly seven times the IPO float hitting the market in one event.
- August 20, 2025: Automatic release of 7% — nearly double the original IPO float.
- September 9, 2025: Another 7% unlocks, roughly three weeks later.
- ~September 23, 2025: Yet another 7%, just two weeks after the previous unlock.
- ~October 7, 2025: Another 7%, two weeks later again.
- Late October / Early November 2025: A massive 28% release — approximately seven times the IPO. This is the 180-day mark where virtually everything unlocks.
- February 2027 – August 2027: Gradual release schedule begins for certain significant early investors who could not sell before this point. Tax motivations and personal financial planning will likely drive meaningful selling here.
- June 12, 2027: The 366-day lock-up expiration for Elon Musk himself, giving him the legal right to sell his 6.4 billion shares of SpaceX.
That's 11 distinct pressure events on the stock price — each one adding new supply into a market that must absorb it. Whether it does so smoothly or violently depends on demand at the time.
Will SpaceX Drop After NASDAQ 100 Inclusion?
SpaceX's inclusion in the NASDAQ 100 is officially on Tuesday, July 7th — but the key date for investors to watch is Monday, July 6th, when ETFs and index funds are permitted to execute their buy orders at market close (3:59:59 PM to be precise). All that institutional buying pressure happens on that single day.
History suggests what comes next isn't pretty. Rocket Lab experienced nearly the same setup — heavy excitement around its NASDAQ inclusion, a strong run-up in the days before the official date, and then a roughly 25% decline over the following four trading days. The buying that everyone expected to be the catalyst? It had already happened. Once the ETFs have their shares, that demand evaporates.
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SoFi's IPO collapse from $25 to $5 over 12 months — the historical parallel the presenter draws to SpaceX
Watch at 18:30 →
The expectation heading into inclusion week is a potential 5% to 10% upward move as anticipation builds. If SpaceX finishes below its current price at inclusion, that's a serious red flag signaling extreme weakness in demand. After Monday's close, expect selling to dominate.
What Is the SpaceX Stock Price Target for 2025?
In the near term — heading into inclusion week — a price target of $165 is a reasonable expectation based on historical inclusion patterns. That would represent the peak of the inclusion-driven enthusiasm before selling takes over.
The critical support level to watch is $147. If the stock closes below that level, it signals the kind of technical breakdown that historically precedes a sustained downtrend. Below $147, the path of least resistance is down — and with all those lock-up expirations lined up, there's a fundamental reason to believe that pressure won't resolve quickly.
On the downside scenario, drawing from the SoFi example — which ran from roughly $14 at IPO all the way to nearly $25 before collapsing to $13 over the following three months — a comparable move for SpaceX from its $220 high could theoretically target the $113 to $120 range before a real floor forms. That would represent roughly a 50% drawdown from the all-time high.
Do Most IPO Stocks Fall Within the First Year?
This isn't a SpaceX-specific concern — it's a documented pattern across the IPO market. Approximately 90% of major IPOs are trading below their IPO price one year after listing. SoFi is a perfect case study: it debuted at nearly $25, euphoria drove retail buying, and twelve months later it was sitting around $5 — a 70% to 80% decline.
The pattern is remarkably consistent: IPO excitement drives early buyers in at inflated prices, lock-up expirations flood the market with supply, and the stock grinds lower until all the forced and motivated sellers have exited. Only after that consolidation period — when the stock moves sideways for an extended time — do the real long-term gains begin.
SpaceX will almost certainly follow a similar trajectory. The company's long-term potential is not in question. The timing of when to own the stock is everything.
How Much SpaceX Stock Can Elon Musk Actually Sell?
Elon Musk becomes legally eligible to sell his SpaceX shares starting June 12, 2027 — 366 days after the IPO. At that point, he holds 6.4 billion shares of SpaceX. Whether he sells any of them is an open question.
Musk has sold Tesla shares before when he needed liquidity, but SpaceX is arguably his most important asset and mission. At his level of wealth — reportedly a trillion dollars at his peak — selling a few billion dollars worth of shares is almost a rounding error. He may sell some for portfolio management or tax planning purposes, but a mass liquidation seems unlikely given how central SpaceX is to his broader vision of Mars colonization and humanity's multi-planetary future.
Still, the potential for that selling to occur is enough to create uncertainty in the market, and uncertainty suppresses price. Investors should factor in June 2027 as another potential volatility event regardless of what Musk ultimately decides to do.
Should You Buy SpaceX Stock Now or Wait?
SpaceX is going to be a generational company. There's a credible case that it merges with Tesla, that Starlink redefines global internet infrastructure, that AI data centers in space become a reality, and that SpaceX ultimately becomes the largest company on Earth. None of that is being disputed here.
The question is purely about entry timing. Buying into a stock before 11 waves of new supply hit the market — most of them concentrated within the next six months — means you're buying at a moment of peak artificial scarcity. The price almost certainly reflects that scarcity, not the underlying fundamentals.
The smarter play, based on historical IPO data and the specific lock-up structure SpaceX has implemented, is to wait for the consolidation period that follows the final major unlock events. That's when sellers are exhausted, supply stabilizes, and the stock can finally be priced on its actual business performance. Dollar-cost averaging through the extended sideways period after the 180-day unlock could position long-term investors for the eventual breakout — without absorbing the painful downside that appears to be coming first.
As always, do your own research, size your positions appropriately, and never invest more than you can afford to hold through extended volatility. SpaceX's future is bright. The next 12 to 18 months for its stock price may not be.
