Earnings season is approaching, AI momentum continues to dominate macro sentiment, and the memory trade is very much alive — but the more interesting action right now is in biotech. Amgen's obesity pipeline, Viking Therapeutics' phase two data, and a handful of under-the-radar names deserve a closer look. Here's a structured rundown of the most important themes from today's session.
Amgen: Execution Machine, but GLP-1 Is the Question
Amgen continues to demonstrate why it's one of the best operators in large-cap pharma. Repatha, its PCSK9 antibody, is putting up monster numbers. Krystexxa, a gout drug that Amgen acquired out of bankruptcy (the original company, Savient, sold it for roughly $400 million), is now generating approximately $1.6 billion in annualized revenue. That's the kind of execution that defines Amgen's culture.
The bigger strategic question is maratide (AMG 133), Amgen's lead obesity asset. Unusually, maratide is a GIP receptor antagonist rather than a triple agonist — a mechanistic distinction that makes direct comparisons to tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) difficult. Consensus peak sales estimates sit around $7 billion, though there's real skepticism about whether maratide can match tirzepatide's efficacy and safety profile. Phase three data isn't expected until 2027, which means investors are sitting with significant uncertainty for the next two-plus years. If the GLP-1 program doesn't prove competitive, Amgen's pipeline story gets considerably harder to tell.
Viking Therapeutics: Overlooked in the GLP-1 Crowd
With so much attention on Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, Viking Therapeutics (ticker: VKTX) often gets lost in the shuffle. Its lead asset, VK2735, is a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist currently in a 78-week phase three study — meaning top-line data is roughly 18 months away.
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Phase two weight loss data for VK2735, with placebo-subtracted comparisons across GLP-1 candidates
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Phase two data look solid. The molecule doesn't appear to have notable safety issues, and discontinuation rates aren't materially worse than comparators. At a roughly $4 billion market cap, Viking is not expensive for a late-stage obesity asset with a clean profile. The risk is that the field has already moved on toward triple agonists, and a dual agonist entering a crowded market in 2026 or 2027 faces serious commercial headwinds. That said, the data belong — this isn't a marginal program.
Vaxcyte: A Pneumococcal Bet Worth Watching
Vaxcyte (PCVX) is developing a next-generation pneumococcal vaccine designed to outperform Prevnar, currently the best-selling vaccine in the world. The addressable population spans infants and elderly patients — two of the highest-value vaccine segments.
The shareholder base is notable: Fidelity, RA Capital, Paradigm, Deep Track, D.E. Shaw, Adage, and Maverick are all holders, signaling serious institutional conviction. The stock could plausibly double from current levels, though the risk profile is real — Pfizer and Merck both have competing programs, and the clinical bar to displace an entrenched standard of care is high. Worth monitoring, particularly as data readouts approach.
Cullinan Therapeutics: Early-Stage but Interesting
Cullinan Therapeutics (CGEM) — formerly Cullinan Oncology — has broadened its pipeline beyond cancer into autoimmune disease, which explains the rebrand. The lead oncology asset, zipalertinib, targets EGFR exon 20 insertions, a mutation class that has attracted significant industry interest.
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Cullinan Therapeutics shareholder breakdown, with Links One Capital as the dominant holder
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The holder structure is dominated by Links One Capital Management, with RTW Investments, Deerfield, and Great Point also present. A $280 million private placement was done at $19 per share; the stock now trades around $50, suggesting early investors have been well-rewarded. The EGFR exon 20 space more broadly is worth attention — a related name, Aravive (AVBP), also operates in adjacent territory. First-blush view on Cullinan: interesting, with multiple ways to win across oncology and autoimmune, but requires deep diligence on the individual assets before sizing a position.
Memory Stocks and the Macro Backdrop
Micron is up roughly 5% on the session, and the broader market is essentially trading in sympathy with memory. SK Hynix continues its run. The near-term question is whether this momentum is sustainable or whether we're approaching a mean-reversion point.
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Micron and SK Hynix price overlay, nearly superimposable over the relevant period
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Nvidia is roughly flat. The AI infrastructure trade hasn't collapsed, but the easy money in semis may be behind us for this cycle. The more interesting alpha, particularly heading into earnings season, is likely in healthcare and biotech — where company-specific catalysts can generate returns independent of the macro tape.
Key Takeaways
- Amgen remains a great operator, but maratide's competitive position versus tirzepatide is the central unresolved question for the stock.
- Viking Therapeutics has credible phase two data and a reasonable valuation, but faces a crowded late market for dual agonists.
- Vaxcyte is a high-conviction institutional name in pneumococcal vaccines — worth watching as data approach, despite competitive pressure from Pfizer and Merck.
- Cullinan Therapeutics is an early-stage name with a broadened pipeline and strong backers; the exon 20 insertion space deserves attention.
- Memory stocks are driving broad market action, but the GLP-1 and oncology pipelines are where differentiated analysis can generate real alpha.
